论文标题：Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions
期刊：Nature Communications
作者：S. S. Dhomse, W. Feng et.al
发表时间：2019/12/19
数字识别码：10.1038/s41467-019-13717-x
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《自然-通讯》发表的一项建模研究Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions显示，如果近期发现的三氯氟甲烷（CFC-11）排放增长持续下去，可能会让南极臭氧洞的恢复时间延迟十年以上。虽然CFC-11的排放水平和变化趋势仍有许多不确定之处，但快速停止排放或能将延迟时间控制在几年以内。
摘要：The Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with the Montreal Protocol. If the unusual meteorology of 2002 is repeated, an ozone-hole-free-year could occur as soon as the early 2020s by some metrics. The recently discovered increase in CFC-11 emissions of ~ 13 Gg yr−1 may delay recovery. So far the impact on ozone is small, but if these emissions indicate production for foam use much more CFC-11 may be leaked in the future. Assuming such production over 10 years, disappearance of the ozone hole will be delayed by a few years, although there are significant uncertainties. Continued, substantial future CFC-11 emissions of 67 Gg yr−1 would delay Antarctic ozone recovery by well over a decade.
